In fact, their combined sales in the US, China, and Europe are expected to outpace all other engine sales by 2033, according to the latest analysis by the multinational professional services network EY. The latest predictions show that Europe will be the first to reach the new automotive era in 2028, when EV sales are expected to outstrip those of other powertrains. Then China is slated to follow in 2033, while the US won’t reach it until 2036. But while Europe is expected to hold the first place until 2031, China will pick up the torch from 2032 to 2050. Notably, EY predicts that by 2045, EV sales will eclipse those of their conventional competitors, which will account for – wait for it – less than 1% of the overall sales. This scenario doesn’t seem unreasonably optimistic if we take into account the new circumstances that have emerged in the automotive world. Firstly, there’s significant national regulatory support. To name a few examples, the new US administration has announced EV buying incentives and the development of charging infrastructure. Similarly, many EU countries, including Norway, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, are offering subsidies or other non-monetary incentives. The same goes for China. Secondly, most automakers are supporting the EV transition not only by manufacturing electric cars, but also by setting their own time frames for phasing petrol and diesel engines out. So will 2045 mark the official win of the EVs? Probably, but I hope it’ll happen even sooner. Do EVs excite your electrons? Do ebikes get your wheels spinning? Do self-driving cars get you all charged up? Then you need the weekly SHIFT newsletter in your life. Click here to sign up.
